The Cincinnati Reds find themselves in a peculiar spot through 73 games in 2025. Hunter Greene started the season out in dominant fashion, sparking Cy Young conversations and showed that he was building off of his career breakout season in 2024. Austin Hays is arguably the Reds best power threat, other than Elly De La Cruz. Unfortunately for both of these players, the injury bug has really plagued them this season. Greene was placed on the 10 Day IL on May 7th, returned for 3 starts and subsequently was placed back on the IL after he re-aggravated the groin and is now dealing with a back injury. He could be sidelined through the All-Star break. Hays started the season on the IL with a calf injury. When he has been in the lineup, he’s been a really good presence in the lineup. Unfortunately for Hays, he’s only played in 31 games this season. With the time that he has missed, he’s still slashing .303/.346/.555 and is tied for 4th on the team in home runs. With that being said, the Reds find themselves 3 games over .500 with a record of 38-35. They are tied for 3rd in the NL Central and are 7 games back of the Chicago Cubs. Can they be contenders this season?

Let’s look at some history of Terry Francona lead teams. The Boston Red Sox had a record of 43-30 through 73 games in Tito’s first season. They finished with 98 wins, a second place spot in the AL East and ultimately won the World Series. The Cleveland Indians had a record of 39-34 record through 73 games in 2013. That team ended the season with 92 wins, losing in the Wild Card game to the Tampa Bay Rays. What does that mean? Honestly nothing, but there are some common themes with these teams. Very good starting pitching and a good bullpen. Cleveland had Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Cory Kluber and Zack McAllister in the rotation. That team was 15th in ERA, 2nd in strikeouts, 13th in earned runs and 10th in home runs allowed. The offense was 13th in batting average, 6th in stolen bases, 7th in OBP and 9th in slugging. Boston was a bit of a different beast. They were lead by sluggers David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez and by pitchers Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling and had a very good supporting cast on both offense and on the pitching staff.

The 2025 Cincinnati Reds are a similar team to the 2013 Cleveland Indians in my opinion. 12th in home runs, 16th in batting average, 10th in slugging and 9th in stolen bases. The pitching is the biggest similarity to the Cleveland team. 9th in walks, 13th in ERA, 8th in hits allowed and, unfortunately, have had to deal with their share of 1-0 losses. Losing 3 straight at one point. The offense is beginning to heat up. Elly De La Cruz hit a home run in 4 straight games. The Reds have a winning record against teams with a winning record. They won their first Ohio Cup outright since 2014. They are coming off of a series win against the AL best Detroit Tigers and are finally showing signs of life when trailing late in games. Their ability to stay around or above .500 up to this point is impressive, with all of the injuries to key players.

The Reds have offensive reinforcements on the way. I, as well as many other fans of this team, were puzzled by the Front Office’s decision to sign Garrett Hampson to a Major League contract and demote Rece Hinds to AAA. At the time of that transaction, the Reds had a serious lack of power in the lineup and on the bench. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario, Noelvi Marte, and Austin Hays were all on the IL with injuries. Will Benson joined the lineup and proceeded to hit 4 home runs in 3 games vs the Guardians. Once CES rejoined the team, he hit a walk off double and 3 home runs in the D-Backs series sweep. When the Reds hit home runs, they win games. They are 20-3 when they hit multiple home runs as of June 13th.

The reinforcements are Austin Hays, Jeimer Candelario and Noelvi Marte. Austin Hays could return within the next week. Jeimer Candelario hit his first home run of his rehab stint today and has been drawing a lot of walks as well. Noelvi Marte could begin a rehab stint as soon as June 20th in Arizona, depending on the outcome of an MRI. It’s clear to me that the Jeimer Candelario we saw to start 2025 is not going to be the Jeimer Candelario we’ll see going forward. If Jeimer can work counts and just have good at bats, his results will come. Noelvi Marte could be log jammed depending on how Candelario does coming back. Marte did start the season in AAA but deservingly earned the promotion back on the Reds roster and put up great numbers. Will the injury dampen the rhythm he had going before he was placed on the IL? Maybe. If he puts up the type of numbers in his rehab stint that he had when he was in Louisville, you have to have him in the lineup.

Should the Reds be in contention at the trade deadline, they could make a move to get a power bat and a relief pitcher or two. Tony Santillan and Scott Barlow are among the league leaders in appearances this season and could run into fatigue, so fresh arms could help keep the bullpen as good as it’s been this year. Should Hunter Greene come back post All-Star break and be as good as he was to start, that could be like making a trade for a starter, not to mention the potential of Rhett Lowder getting healthy later this season and a possible Chase Burns promotion could keep the rotation fresh.

Andrew Abbott has stepped up as the Reds’ ace in Greene’s absence. If Abbott can finish the season strong, Greene comes back and is healthy for the remainder of the season, Nick Lodolo finds consistency, and continued success from Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, this team could find themselves in a serious playoff race. The offense is going to be the determining factor for this team.

Follow me on 𝕏 for my live thoughts on the Reds and Reds MiLB. Follow my podcast; The Red Hot Reds podcast on all socials and YouTube. We have some big interviews lined up and we go live every Wednesday and Sunday at 8pm EST to talk about the week that was in Reds baseball.

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