“Terrible”

That’s the word Carlos Rodon used to describe his final start of 2023, but it could just as easily sum up his entire first season in pinstripes. In that final outing, he failed to record an out, gave up eight earned runs, and turned his back on pitching coach Matt Blake—a moment that went viral for all the wrong reasons.

Signed to a six-year, $162 million deal in the 2023 offseason, Rodon was supposed to be the co-ace to Gerrit Cole’s ace—the final piece in ending the Yankees’ championship drought. Instead, he delivered a 6.85 ERA across just 64.1 innings, battling injuries and ineffectiveness. His performance, and that infamous final start, left Yankee fans furious—and ready to move on.

Fast-forward a season and a half, and it’s hard to believe it’s the same pitcher. Rodon has not only rebounded—he’s evolved. In a rotation without Cole and scrambling for depth, he became the pitcher the Yankees hoped for: durable, dominant, and indispensable.

Yearly Progression

After bottoming out in 2023, Rodon has sharpened almost every aspect of his game each season since. Rodon made every start in 2024 and lowered his ERA to 3.96 over 175 innings. Rodon added a change-up to his arsenal and reduced his fastball usage, which resulted in lower H/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates, while also increasing his K/9 and ground ball percentage. While he still hadn’t fully lived up to the $27 million price tag, he was at least serviceable and was a constant in the Yankees’ rotation.

So far this season, he’s taken an even bigger step forward and looks like an all-star caliber pitcher. Through the first two months of the season, Carlos Rodon has pitched to a 2.60 ERA over 72.2 innings, and his FIP and xERA are the third-lowest marks of his career at 3.11 and 2.84, respectively. The only two seasons he’s posted a better FIP and xERA were 2021 and 2022, where he was named an All-Star and finished 5th and 6th in Cy Young voting. Rodon further increased his ground ball and strikeout rates from 2024, and currently leads the league in H/9. Rodon’s HR/9 is also down to his career average of 1.1 despite playing half his games in Yankee Stadium.

These trends appear sustainable as his Barrel%—which tracks how often a hitter makes contact on the ideal portion of the bat—is only 7% in 2025, down from 11% and 12.2% in 2024 and 2023. Pair this with a high ground ball rate, and it becomes safer to assume that when a hitter squares up a pitch off Rodon, it’s more often than not going to be a single or double that gets by the infielders rather than a squared-up flyball that will end up in the seats.

His Evolution

2023

Rodon’s improved performance isn’t by chance. He’s been working on improving his arsenal every season since he joined the Yankees. In that terrible 2023 season, he was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball and slider 89% of the time. Hitters punished his fastball in 2023, slugging .550 against the pitch. In 2023, opponents slugged like 2024 Juan Soto against Rodon’s fastball, turning the pitch into a liability. Rodon occasionally mixed in a change-up, but it was his least-used pitch (4%) despite not allowing a hit in the eight at-bats that ended with his changeup

2024

In 2024, he started easing off his 4-seam fastball, reducing its usage from 60% down to 49%, and slightly reduced his slider usage as well (29% down to 26% in 2024). His fastball was still hit hard, as hitters slugged .514 off the pitch, but since he was using the pitch less often, the damage was slightly less frequent. He offset the fastball usage by increasing his change-up percentage to 13%, and it was his best pitch, even better than his slider. Rodon’s changeup was the final pitch in an at-bat 85 times, and hitters only hit .188 with a .247 slug against the pitch. Since hitters were trying to punish Rodon’s fastball, the change-up was a deadly weapon for him, with a 49.5% whiff rate.

2025

In this stellar 2025 season, Rodon took this formula a step further. He lowered his 4-seam fastball usage by 8%—down to 41%—and instead is replacing that usage with a sinker. Rodon slightly increased his Slider and Change-Up usage as well, throwing the pitches 28% and 16% of the time this season. Adding the sinker gives hitters two different fastballs to worry about, and this additional factor has resulted in fewer hitters punishing Rodon’s 4-seam fastball, with the slug against the pitch dropping to .425.

Rodon’s sinker has tormented hitters, as they are 2-17 against the pitch with two singles, for a .118 batting average, a .118 slugging percentage, and a 31 wRC+, which is used to evaluate a hitter’s impact, with 100 being an average MLB hitter. Sinkers are the most likely pitch to generate a ground ball outcome, and the addition of this pitch is a driver behind Rodon’s increased ground ball rate.

The results on Rodon’s slider are the best they’ve been with the Yankees, as hitters are only batting .102 against the pitch and have struck out 52 times on his slider. The changeup is still a force, with hitters slugging only .230 against the pitch.

The Importance of Evolution:

Not only is the addition of the sinker and evolution of the change leading to better results, but it’s also compensating for Rodon’s aging and diminishing stuff.

Stuff+ is a metric used to evaluate individual pitches’ movement, velocity, and deception, with 100 being the average mark. The below figure shows how Rodon’s stuff+ has changed as a Yankee, with his 2025 marks (except for the change-up) being the lowest.

Despite having only one above-average pitch (the slider), Rodon is having the best season of his Yankee career. This is thanks to the better balance of his arsenal and dedication to becoming more effective. After this season, Rodon still has three years left on his contract, and his ability to evolve and perform despite having diminishing stuff is a good sign for the Yankees.

His All-Star Case:

While there’s a plethora of worthy options every season, Rodon has a strong case to make his third All-Star Game. Among AL Pitchers, he’s second in innings pitched, behind only Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet, 2nd in K/9, behind only reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, 12th in ERA, and is currently 8th in bWAR.

All-Stars are only evaluated by the respective leagues, but when comparing his stats to the entire MLB, he only drops to 4th in innings pitched, 5th in K/9, and 18th in ERA.

Redemption and Forgiveness

First impressions are hard to overcome, and Rodon left about as bad a first impression as one can, but ever since that horrid outing, he’s worked hard to improve, and the results are showing. Pitching in New York isn’t easy. Beyond the media scrutiny and fan pressure, Yankee Stadium’s short porch adds another layer of difficulty as routine fly balls can easily turn into home runs. Even Gerrit Cole struggled at the beginning of his Yankee tenure to figure out how to pitch in the Bronx, and it seems Rodon has figured it out this year, allowing a slug of only .254 and a wOBA of .233 at Yankee Stadium this season.

In addition to his better results, he has made every start since the start of 2024. As mentioned in the previous section, he’s an innings eater this season (2nd in the AL in innings pitched) and doing so at a high level.

The Yankees desperately needed Rodon to step up for them this season due to injuries and ineffective veterans, and he’s answered the bell and then some. The Yankees are without their Ace, Gerrit Cole, for the entire season. Reigning rookie of the year Luis Gil still hasn’t debuted for them in 2025. Clarke Schmidt missed time to start the season and is starting to look like the reliable pitcher he flashed in 2024. Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco, two pitchers who were in the Yankees rotation to start the season, are ineffective and likely won’t return to the big-league roster. Will Warren was an unknown to start the season and struggled in April.

Without Rodon’s constant presence at the top of the rotation with Max Fried, the Yankees would be in a worse position today.

His dedication to his craft and evolution as a pitcher have been crucial to the Yankees’ success this season, and he’s a big reason why the rotation’s been able to not only hold up through April, but become the strength for the team it is now.

Photo Credit; Pack Insider