The Washington Nationals certainly know what it feels like to have an elite pitcher in their starting rotation. It started in 2009, when the team drafted Stephen Strasburg with the #1 overall pick. Strasburg’s rise to stardom was truly something special, and he achieved everything you would want from a franchise player. This includes winning the World Series in 2019, as well as the World Series MVP. Alongside Strasburg, was the electrifying Max Scherzer, who signed a 7 year, $210 million contract with the Nationals in 2015. While this tandem had a lot of success with the Nationals, they have departed from the team in recent years. Fortunately for Nationals fans, they may have just found their next superstar on the mound.
Mackenzie Gore is shaping up to be a key piece of the Nationals’ bright future. Gore (25 years old) was traded to Washington in August of 2022, as a part of the blockbuster deal that sent Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres. While he spent most of 2022 on the injured list, he has spent the last 2 seasons showcasing what he can do on the mound. Mackenzie stands at 6’2”, weighing 193 lbs, and this dynamic lefty is starting to hit his stride in the big leagues.
In 2023, Gore put up some respectable, but not great, stats for a young pitcher. He finished 7-10, with a 4.42 ERA. However, the real story here is his drastic improvement during this 2024 season. In 11 starts this season, Gore boasts a 2.91 ERA, with many of his starts coming against some very talented teams – LAD, ATL, TEX, PHI (twice). While ERA is a basic measuring stick of a pitcher, let’s take a deeper dive into his significant improvement this season.
From 2023-2024, Gore has improved in almost every stat category. Last season against all batters he faced, he allowed a .330 OBP, .459 SLUG, and a .789 OPS. So far in 2024, these opponent numbers have dipped to a .316 OBP, .381 SLUG, and a .696 OPS. All of these 2024 marks are under the league average for MLB hitters, so it is very fair to say that Gore has been an above average pitcher. Looking deeper into the 2023 metrics, Gore averaged 10 K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings), and a 2.6 K/BB ratio. This year, you guessed it! Even better. His K/9 is up to 11, and his K/BB ratio has significantly risen to 4.2. Gore has seemingly learned to limit the walks, while also improving his strikeout numbers.
Mackenzie has also seen a significant increase in his pitch velocity. In 2023, his fastball sat around 95-96 mph. This season, he averages closer to 97 and touches 98, sometimes even 99 mph. It is very encouraging to see him gain 2+ mph on his fastball, while simultaneously lowering his walk numbers and becoming more accurate. His average fastball velocity of 96.6 mph, ranks 6th among all qualifying MLB Starting Pitchers. According to Statcast, Gore also ranks in the 91st percentile in Extension, at 7.0 feet. The longer the extension, the less amount of time the hitter has to react to the pitch. Gore also ranks in the 84th percentile for both K% (29.1) and Average Exit Velocity (87.0).
Something else I’ve noted throughout recent history, is that elite pitchers often take more than a couple years to fully reach their potential. Let’s take a look at some early career numbers for a few pitchers who dominated the league for years. Max Scherzer had a 4.12 ERA in his 2nd season, and 4.43 in his 4th season. In Justin Verlander’s 4th season, he ended the year with a 4.84 ERA. Gerrit Cole owned a 4.26 ERA in his 5th season. Zach Wheeler had some growing pains in his 3rd season, with a 5.21 ERA. Even Clayton Kershaw slightly struggled his rookie year, with 4.26 ERA through 21 starts. Each of these pitchers are household names, and were at the top of the food chain at one point or another. All of these seasons were also of substantial sample size, with no major injuries cutting them short. This just goes to show you that to become an elite pitcher, you do not have to dominate from the moment you step into the league. With experience, these players learned from their mistakes, and grew into superstars that nobody ever wanted to face. Now, I am not claiming that Mackenzie Gore will be the next Scherzer/Kershaw/Verlander. However, you can argue that the potential is absolutely there. Whether or not Gore ever reaches the level of those previously mentioned, remains to be seen. Nevertheless, he is 25 years old and getting better by the day, gaining more confidence with every start.
The Nationals’ rotation has some other key pieces in place as well. Mitchell Parker (24 years old) has been a pleasant surprise this season, with a 4-2 record to go with a 3.45 ERA. Jake Irvin (27) has also held his own this season, with a 3.43 ERA. The Nats’ #5 prospect Cade Cavalli (25) is set to return from the IL in the coming months. In a recent rehab start, he struck out 5 hitters through 2.2 IP. Josiah Gray (26) remains more of a wildcard. He earned a respectable 3.91 ERA in 2023, but has struggled in two starts in 2024. He is set to return from injury in the coming weeks, and the potential is still there. Nationals fans are hopeful that Gray can build on his 2023 season, and learn to limit the amount of HR’s allowed.
Among all of these young pitchers, I still believe that Gore is the most exciting, and will be the best of the bunch. Still just 25, he has made tremendous strides so far in 2024, and has been doing everything you could ask of him. In his last two starts combined, he has posted the following numbers: 12.1 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 18 K, 1 BB. My favorite part about these numbers is the last two – 18 strikeouts, and only a single walk. While we still have a long season ahead of us, Nats fans everywhere are looking forward to watching Mackenzie Gore continuing to grow. He is showing flashes that he can be the next ace in the nation’s capital. In the meantime, it’s time to sit back, relax, and watch Mackenzie do his thing on the mound.
Photo Credits; Federal Baseball, WJLA, Whats Up? Media
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