Opening day is right around the corner and there’s only a few games remaining for players on the fringe of being included on the roster to prove themselves. For the proven players, it’s simply an opportunity to warm up for their team’s season. Roster cuts are some of the most difficult decisions a team will make prior to each year, but there’s not a spot for everyone on the team, as the roster transitions from 40 players to 26. This article will be highlighting the players who are a lock for the start of season roster, as well as the guys on the mend who’ve likely accomplished enough to also be on the right side to earn a roster spot.

Starting Pitchers (5) – Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks, Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly

The first 4 are locks, while the 5th spot is up in the air, as it’s been for quite a while. Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown and Drew Smyly were listed as the possible candidates in a previous article. Originally, Jameson Taillon was penciled in as the 4th starter, with Wicks and the other 4 all dueling for the 5th starting spot. A flare up of lower back tightness will likely sideline him; however, it could be a minimum (2 or 3 start) IL stint if he were to be on the IL.

Brown is too inexperienced and Wesneski is too inconsistent to likely earn either guy the starting spot, so it’s between Assad and Smyly, two guys who value a high contact approach instead of being strikeout artists. Ultimately, neither guy offers a ton of upside; Assad offered multiple deep outings into games during a few starts last season, although he was primarily a bullpen guy, and Smyly started great before fizzling, but the difference factor will likely be Smyly’s use of his knuckle curve to strike out more hitters. Even though he won’t pitch deep into too many games, the Cubs likely believe in their bullpen to be strong, thus Smyly is likely to start the season in the starting rotation.

Relief Pitchers (8) – Jose Cuas, Julian Merryweather, Yency Almonte, Mark Leiter Jr. , Hector Neris, Hayden Wesneski, Daniel Palencia, Adbert Alzolay

Cuas was acquired from the Royals before the trade deadline for Nelson Velasquez, and put up decent numbers. His delivery of a unique sidearm style makes him an intruiging option out of the ‘pen. Merryweather is a typical short length guy and started 2023 rough; he did, however, turn up a bit after the rocky start; he’s a solid guy for some of the middle innings.

Almonte was acquired along with Michael Busch from the Dodgers; he’s played parts of 7 seasons between the Rockies (5) and Dodgers (2), posting a skewed 6.14 ERA from most home games being played at Coors Field.

Yency was decent with the Dodgers, however, posting a 3.86 ERA in 2023. Leiter is a righty who statistically fares better vs. lefty hitters than righties, a rare breed known as a “reverse split” pitcher. Despite trade rumors for him at times, the Cubs will keep rolling with him.

Neris was signed for 1 year and $9 million, a nice value signing from the Cubs. Although he’s 34, likely why his contract was only 1 season, he’s been solid. The cliff will come at some point; doesn’t appear to be yet with the way he’s pitched, though. Wesneski, as mentioned, is an inconsistent starter and a guy ticketed for the bullpen; he’s found success there and should be good in working multiple innings per outing.

Palencia is the flamethrower of the group, with fastballs routinely hitting the tip of 100 MPH; he was trusted in high leverage situations and brings the largest strikeout potential of any of the Cubs’ arms. Alzolay worked as the closer for a good portion of last season; while he brings good strikeout potential; he is sometimes bit by fly balls. Regardless, he’s the Cubs’ best option to be the closer on a per game basis. Palencia and Neris could sneak in some save opportunities if Alzolay struggles; simply put, though, it’s Alzolay’s task right now.

Catchers (2) – Yan Gomes, Miguel Amaya

“Gas Money” Gomes was clutch in 2023. The 36 year old Brazilian comes into his 3rd season with the Cubs. He brings some pop to the plate and is good defensively. Amaya broke out at times as a rookie, and with Tucker Barnhart out the door, a path is clear for him to earn much more playing time than he did before. It’s a great high floor (Gomes) and high potential (Amaya) duo.

Infielders (6) – Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Miles Mastrobuoni, Christopher Morel, Dansby Swanson, Patrick Wisdom

Busch was also included in the trade that sent Almonte to the North Side; the Cubs are comfortable with him playing often at first base. Cody Bellinger could also garner some limited playing time at 1B, but it’s Busch’s role to lose. Hoerner, coming off of a breakout 2023, is poised to try replicating that success and Swanson, after a slow start, started rolling as the season wore on. These two are stalwart options to anchor an up the middle defense, and if they hit as such like last season, they are a plausible top 5 infield duo in MLB.

Mastrobuoni is, to a tee, a utility player, and he fits the role well – good contact, little power and multi-positional flexibility, what you’re looking for in a utility man; a table setter, of sorts. Morel is a player who possesses some bonafide breakout potential after 37 home runs between triple A Iowa and Chicago last season. Cutting down on strikeouts is the key, and if he does, he could truly become an all-around stud as opposed to simply a power stud.

The defense at 3rd could be a looming problem; if the offense picks up the slack, however, Craig Counsell may be fine with keeping on trotting him out there. Finally, Wisdom, beginning his 4th season with the team, is predictable; you know what you’re getting – great pop, while the strikeouts and defense, aside from an occasional great play here or there, are legitimate concerns. Either way, he’s a guy who can RAKE, particularly vs. lefties and he’s proven enough to retain a spot on the roster.

Outfielders (5) – Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Mike Tauchman, Alexander Canario, Cody Bellinger

Suzuki was one of the breakout stars in the home stretch of the 2023 season, posting what were easily career best numbers during a scorching 2 months to close the season. Ian Happ missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring issue; he’s back to playing, and will be totally fine for the start of the season.

Tauchman raked during some of the season in 2023, dubbed “The summer of Mike Tauchman.” He’s a good platoon guy for the roster, much like he was a season ago.

Bellinger returns after signing a 3 year deal worth up to $80 million. While some metrics considered him “lucky and fortunate” during a huge bounce-back 2023, it’s clear that Wrigley Field fits his skillset well, as the couple of short gaps (368 feet each) play well for sluggers like him who like to utilize the gaps.

The 5th spot is a toss-up, likely between Canario and seasoned veteran David Peralta. With 2 lefty bats (Bellinger and Tauchman), I believe that the Cubs opt for the young Canario, despite some rumors indicating he may start the season at Iowa, as more at bats, and eventually playing time, should only benefit the talented outfield prospect of the Cubs.

By Nick

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