Jameson Taillon is likely to be on the injured list to start the 2024 season because of lower back tightness, making the team’s rotation a bit more muddy as he comes into the second year of a four year, $68 million contract. Justin Steele, on the heels of a near-NL Cy Young Award, Japenese signing Shota Imanaga and Kyle Hendricks, the veteran of the bunch, will in some order be the first three starting pitchers. Jordan Wicks is now slated to fill the 4th spot with Taillon on the sidelines.

Wicks, a 2021 first round pick from Kansas State University posted a 4.41 ERA, 17 earned runs, a 24/11 stirkeout/walk ratio, 1.269 WHIP and a 4-1 record in 7 starts with the big league team after his promotion in the later part of the 2023 season. Taillon was slated to fill the fourth spot and Wicks the fifth. However, the Taillon injury has opened an opportunity for that fifth spot. In my mind there are four possible candidates. Here are the pros and cons for each.

Drew Smyly – Smyly is a crafty veteran, but at age 34, he’s a player better suited for a bullpen role at this point. Smyly was serviceable in a starting role to start the 2023 season until he fizzled. Despite this, David Ross still gave him a long leash. Eventually, however, the risk was realized fully by Ross. Smyly was then moved to being a long-relief bullpen arm, a role he worked much better in. Personally, I don’t see a reasonable argument for him winning the fifth starter in the rotation given the lack of success after a month or two last season. Combine that with all the young pitching talent the Cubs have at their disposal. It’s more logical for a younger, high-upside prospect to fill the void. Especially in a winnable division. Keep Smyly in the bullpen, where he’s proven to be more valuable.

Ben Brown – In a previous article, Brown was mentioned as being among the Cubs spring training roster cuts. That same article also mentioned that he had ups and downs at Triple A Iowa last season. But, on the positive side it also mentioned that he offered above average stirkeout potential. Not to mention, he could become a more valuable commodity should Taillon be forced to miss any games, something that is seemingly coming to fruition. Brown is 24 and owns the most experience of all the Cubs’ minor league options, making him a dark horse in the race to be that fifth starter.

Hayden Wesneski – acquired in the 2022 one for one trade that sent Scott Effross to the Yankees. Watching Wesneski pitch down the stretch of the 2022 season with Chicago, it appeared he could be a viable rotation option heading into 2023. Then the season actually started, and regression hit, as Wesneski couldn’t figure out anything consistently. Particularly throwing meatballs in the middle of the plate when the count was at two strikes. Like Smyly, Wesneski found things a bit more smooth once moving to the bullpen. He only allowed a mere two runs in his first ten games. The stuff in his pitches seemed to show up more frequently than when he started on the bump. He’s a solid pitcher out of the ‘pen. If the team, however, would bring up the idea of stretching him into a starter, it wouldn’t be surprising if he had at least another trip, if not two, to Des Moines.

Javier Assad – The fourth feasible option is Assad, who, like Smyly and Wesneski, owns some experience starting with the Northsiders. His stuff won’t blow the shoes off of anyone, as he relies more on groundballs rather than Ks, similar to Kyle Hendricks. Across 32 games (10 starts), Assad posted a 3.05 ERA, 37 earned runs, and a 1.30 WHIP. But he also had an uninspiring 94/41 stirkeout/walk ratio in those 109.1 innings. If the Cubs are looking for more upside to fill the spot of Taillon, they should look in a different direction. If they want a consistent option and someone who can put up decent totals, then Assad is a good option to roll with.

Ultimately, I believe Smyly will sustain his role in the bullpen and be the least likely of the four pitchers to be considered. Brown owns zero MLB starting experience and the Cubs will likely opt for him to remain parked in central Iowa. Assad and Wesneski are both guys, as noted, who own both starting and bullpen experience, making each guy valuable. The bottom line is that Assad is the safe option and Wesneski is the guy if they want an upside swing. With Craig Counsell succeeding David Ross, it really depends on his preference, since he didn’t manage either player last season. It’s a toss up, but I think the starting spot will be won by Assad, mainly given the fact he can eat more innings than Wesneski and overall has proven to be more consistent.

That is this fan’s choice, but I would love to hear from other Cubs fans. You can do so in the comments below.

-Nick

Photo Credits; K-State Athletics, Marque Sports Network, CBS Sports, FanGraphs Baseball, CubsHQ, and Bleed Cubbie Blue.