As a life long Reds fan, I am happy for Joey Votto who signed a minor league contract with the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. But a heavy heart, as admittedly, although I want him to do well and be successful, it will be difficult to watch him do it in another uniform.
Votto’s contract has a clause that if he makes the big league roster, he is guaranteed a $2MM salary and up to an additional $2MM in incentives is still pending a physical. The signing makes sense for Toronto who no longer have Brandon Belt and only have 3 regulars who bat from the left side in Daulton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier and Cavan Biggio. There is also the fact that Votto grew up in the city of Etobicoke which in 1998 was amalgamated into the city of Toronto. Votto had spent his entire career with Cincinnati until this off-season when a crop of young, cheap, controlable and talented infielders left Votto on the outside looking in as the Red’s gave him his $7MM buyout. His time in a Red’s uniform ends him giving 19 brilliant years, and the Reds giving him a total of $260,263,155 according to Baseball Reference.
but, he is no longer the queen city votto
However, the Votto now heading to Jays’ camp isn’t quite the same one that won an MVP award and earned six All-Star nods in the previous decade with the Reds. In 2022 he had a significant shoulder injury that eventually led to surgery. Over the past two years, he’s played in only 156 games and has an un-votto slash line of just .204/317/.394 which gives him a wRC+ of 95. If compare his career walk and strike out totals to those of the last two years, you will see a great decline. His career walk rate was 15.6% compared to 11.5% and his career strike out rate of 18.8% as compared to 25.7% in those last two years.
I am not saying Votto needs to get back to MVP Votto to be a useful contributor for the Blue Jays, but it is not a perfect fit. The Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr covering first base, plus they signed Justin Turner, who is 39 in his own right. Therefore, he was expected to be the primary designated hitter most days and hasn’t been an everyday fielder since 2021. The best case scenario is Votto carving out a part-time role where he serves as the DH whenever Turner is in the field while perhaps giving Guerrero the occasional breather by playing first base, much like Belt did last year.
but there is a vogelbach problem
Daniel Vogelbach is also in camp, is also a lefty, and is also on a minor league deal. Vogelbach is almost strictly a DH, as he didn’t play the field at all in 2023 and has only logged five innings at first base since 2022. But he has been having a decent spring so far, in 15 plate appearances, he has two homers and three walks producing a slash line of .250/.400/.833.
Vogelbach, at 31 years old is almost ten years younger than Votto but Votto’s longer track record plus his ability to play at first base could give him an edge. His defensive metrics in his post surgery two years have been subpar but has racked up 54 Defensive Runs Saved in his overall career. I don’t see a scenario where the club keeps both on the roster especially knowing they’ll need at least one bench spot for a catcher and two more for multi-positional guys like Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal and Ernie Clement.
If you are thinking the decision will be money related, it will not be, but honestly I was thinking the same thing. Vogelbach also has a base salary of $2MM if he makes the club so the financial element of the decision will be a wash. The Jays are set to be a second-time payor of the competitive balance tax this year, which means they will face a 30% tax on that $2MM whether it comes from Votto or Vogelbach, but that will add just $600K to their tax bill according to Darragh McDonald of MLB Trade Rumors.
Votto is an xxb not an xxl
Votto is what is referred to as a XX(B) free agent. According to the new collective bargaining agreement that was hammered out between MLB and the MLBPA as a player with at least six years of service time that finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. These players have uniform opt-out dates in any minor league deal signed more than 10 days prior to Opening Day. Vogelbach doesn’t have six years of service time and won’t have guaranteed opt-outs. Those dates are five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.
This year’s Opening Day is March 28, meaning Votto will have a chance to return to free agency if the Jays don’t add him to the roster by March 23, which is in just over two weeks. Vogelbach doesn’t have six years of service time and won’t have guaranteed opt-outs, though it’s unknown if he had any added into the language of his contract.
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According to C. Trent Rosecrans and Kaitlyn McGrath who both write for the Athletic Votto will report to Jays camp on Saturday. Yet he expects to open the season at Triple-A Buffalo. That would suggest that Votto is not planning to exercise the first of the opt-out date of March 23rd (five days before Opening Day).
Votto also turned 40 this past September. Can Votto revert back to his Cincinnati self where he has a career 356 home runs and a slash line of .294/.409/.511 for a wRC+ of 145? With all that being said, it is fair to ask the question. What does Joey have left in the tank? I don’t know the answer but, what is clear, is now that tank has Canadian gas in it. I don’t want his tank to blow up, I also don’t want to see it power the Blue Jays to the play-offs.
– Ballentine
Photo credit; The Sporting News, WCIA.com, and The New York Daily News
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