I am going to start off my coverage of my favorite team, the New York Mets, in a series of articles that will both look over our shoulder, and focus on the basepaths ahead. I will attempt to share the hope that Spring Training brings, while being realistic, one position group at a time. This article will focus on starting pitching.

According to FanGraphs, going into the 2023 campaign the Mets were projected to be tied atop the National League East, with a 94-68 record. I don’t need to tell Mets fans this, but they didn’t quite live up to their expectations. Posting a final record of 75-87, which netted them 4th place in the NL East. So with Spring Training commencing, how can the Mets rebound from the atrocious 2023 season? Let’s start by taking a look at the starting pitchers.

What Happened to Last Years Pitching Staff?

The Mets went into the 2023 season with a rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco, and David Peterson. A rotation with Verlander and Scherzer as your one two punch seemed like it would be able to compete with anyone in the Majors. By the time the season ended the Mets starting rotation was not the same.

Justin Verlander ended up being traded back to the Houston Astros where he completley turned around his season. With the Mets Verlander posed a 6-5 record with a 3.15 ERA in 94.1 innings pitched. In Houston however, Verlander posted a 7-3 record with a 3.31 ERA in 68 innings pitched.

Max Scherzer, like Verlander, ended up being traded to the eventual World Series Champions. Unlike Verlander, Scherzer faired well in New York, posting a 9-4 record with a 4.01 ERA in 107.2 innings. It wasn’t that Scherzer was underperforming in the Big Apple, it was more of a salary dump for the management team. For the Rangers, Scherzer posted just a 4-2 record with a 3.20 ERA in only 45 innings.

Kodai Senga was the bright spot in the Mets rotation last year, becoming the ace of the staff once Verlander and Scherzer got traded. In his first big league season, Senga posted a 12-7 record with a 2.98 ERA in 143 innings pitched.

Carlos Carrasco didn’t quite pull his weight, even as a projected 4 started in the 2023 campaign. Carrsco posted a 3-8 record with a 6.80 ERA in just 90 innings pitched. The Mets had much higher hopes for him, especially after his 2022 campaign.

To round out the Mets projected 2023 rotation, we have David Peterson. Like Carrasco, Peterson also posted a 3-8 record with a slightly better 5.03 ERA in 111 innings pitched. The 111 innings pitched by Peterson was the highest of his four year career.

At the end of the season, the Mets top pitchers, based off starts were Kodai Senga, Tylor Mcgill, David Peterson, Carlos Carrasco, and Max Scherzer.

What Does the 2024 Rotation Look Like?

So how will the Mets improve on their disasterous 2023 starting pitching in 2024? With Kodai Senga already hitting the Injured List, the Mets are going to have to rely on the rest of their starters to step up until their young ace returns to the mound. The starting rotation to start the 2024 season, without Senga, consists of Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, and Tylor Megill.

Luckily the Mets did bolster their pitching depth with the additions of Severino and Manea, who both signed as free agents this past off-season. On top of these free agent signings, the Mets also added Houser in a trade with the Brewers. So, as of right now, three of the Mets starting pitchers, have been with the team for only a few months.

The Mets might not have the star studded one two punch that they projected for the 2023 season, but I think they added some of the right arms to make the future look brighter than the past.

Let’s start with Luis Severino, who signed with the Mets after pitching his entire career in the Bronx. Last season was plagued with injuries for Severino. That’s shown in his 2024 projections of a 6-7 record with a 4.90 ERA, but honestly I expect a lot from the life long Yankee. With a career 3.79 ERA over 8 big league seasons, Severino has something to prove. If healthy, I expect him to be closer to his ace like form in 2017-18, than his projection above. I also believe that not needing to be “the guy” in the Big Apple could be huge for the hard throwing righty.

Like Severino, Sean Manaea, has also been in the league for 8 seasons. This will be Manaea’s 4th team in the time frame. If Manaea can revert back to the form he was in 2021-22, then the Mets will be in great shape. In those two seasons Manaea pitched 179.1 and 158 innings respectively. The team needs someone who can eat innings, and Manaea could be the guy. I will also be interested to see how Manaea fairs pitching on the east coast.

Finally, the Mets added Adrian Houser to their rotation after spending the last 7 years in Milwaukee. In those 7 seasons with the Brew Crew, Houser posted a 4.00 ERA in 539.1 combined innings pitched. In 2023, Houser had a bounce back season after a 6-10 record in 2022. A change in scenery could prove to be invaluable for the 31 year old right-hander.

My Pitching Expectations

The Mets are already behind the 8 ball with the injury to Senga, but with the arms they’ve acquired in the off-season, coupled with their minor league depth (which we will cover in the future). The Mets pitching has nowhere to go but up from the 2023 season, in my opinion, despite not having two pitchers who will both one day be in the halls of Cooperstown.

Brian Handzel

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

Stat by FanGraphs

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