Who is The New Favorite?
All odds are as of 12 PM EST, on DraftKings on 12/28/23.
After Week 16, there is a new leader in the race for the NFL Most Valuable Player award. On a very merry Monday Night, the Baltimore Ravens went into San Francisco and stunned the 49ers. As a result, Lamar Jackson now is the odds-on favorite to win MVP. Opposite Lamar, the 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy’s MVP dreams quickly came crashing down as the Ravens’ defense said ‘Nevermore’. All the while, Christian McCaffrey played brilliantly in a losing effort, adding to his long shot case for MVP.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens Quarterback (-150)
The case FOR Lamar: At 12-3, Baltimore has the best record in the NFL. After Week 16, the Ravens are in a position to lock up the top seed in the AFC. With a win against Miami, Baltimore will secure coveted home field advantage and first round bye. Interestingly, the last time the Ravens held the top seed in the AFC, the leagues MVP was Lamar Jackson. No, that’s not a coincidence.
Simply, the last ten most valuable players have been the starting quarterback for either of the top seeds. Before their head-to-head match dual, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was the favorite because San Francisco is the leader of the NFC playoff picture. More on him in a minute.
On Christmas, Baltimore hobbled into San Francisco without JK Dobbins, Mark Andrews, and Keaton Mitchell because of various season-ending injuries. To make matters worse, the Ravens faced immediate adversity after a referee caused a safety. Remarkably, Lamar Jackson successfully navigated through the 49ers stellar defense. In San Francisco, Jackson threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 46 yards on the ground.
Through 15 games, Lamar has been the most dependable factor in the Ravens’ success. In a season where quarterbacks have dropped like flies, Lamar Jackson has provided Baltimore with a blanket of consistency. Just within the AFC North, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, and Kenny Pickett all suffered season-ending injuries.
The case Against Lamar: Seemingly, it has grown harder each week to argue against Jackson’s claim for his second MVP. Yet, critics point to Lamar’s lack of touchdowns. In my opinion, it’s a weak argument.
However, Lamar and the Ravens face their second consecutive road game against a top team. In Week 17, Baltimore travels to Miami to face the 11-4 Dolphins. In Miami, Jackson will face the fifth-best rushing defense in the NFL, which happens to rank tenth against the pass. Surely, this game will serve as a final test of Lamar Jackson’s incredible 2023 MVP campaign. Naturally, the Ravens will win or lose because of Lamar Jackson. Regardless of the outcome, Baltimore’s game against Miami will greatly impact the fate of the MVP award.
The Runner Ups
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers Running back (+330)
The case FOR McCaffrey: In today’s pass-heavy NFL, Christian McCaffrey stands out as a rare breed of running back. He leads the league with 1,395 rushing yards through Week 16, and the second-best rusher, Kyren Williams, trails him by over 330 yards. This demonstrates that McCaffrey is in a league of his own when it comes to rushing.
Moreover, he has scored 21 touchdowns, tying him with Raheem Mostert for the most in the NFL. What’s even more impressive is that McCaffrey has scored more touchdowns than several teams have managed to do individually.
During the Christmas game, Christian McCaffrey proved his worth against the top-ranked defense of Baltimore. While the Ravens’ secondary was dominating Brock Purdy, McCaffrey managed to run for 103 yards and score a touchdown. In a game where the 49ers’ offense was struggling, McCaffrey’s exceptional performance almost singlehandedly kept them in the game.
The case AGAINST CMC: As mentioned earlier, the Most Valuable Player award has been a quarterback, each of the last ten years. In the NFL, the quarterback is king. The last running back to break the royal hierarchy was Adrian Peterson, in 2012. With 2,096 yards, Peterson had one of the best individual rushing seasons in league history. Unfortunately for McCaffrey, AP set an extremely high bar for a running back to win MVP.
How can CMC win the MVP?
In the NFL, anything can happen on any given day. Be it Sunday, Monday, Thursday, or even Saturday. The Dolphins defense has been performing incredibly well lately. This means that Lamar Jackson, the Baltimore Ravens quarterback, may have a tough time when playing against Miami. If the Dolphins manage to win the game, they would move up to the AFC one seed, having gained a head-to-head victory.
In this hypothetical, you would see Lamar fall, opening the NFL MVP race. Likely, if Miami beats Baltimore, either Tua or Tyreek Hill will see an increase in their betting odds like a politician getting a bump in the polls after making a public speech. Yet, like the chicken or the egg debate, which part of the Tua-Tyreek connection is more valuable?
Similarly, one could ask who is more valuable to the 49ers, CMC or Brock Purdy. Sure, you could argue the quarterback is more valuable by the nature of the position. Yet, McCaffrey was more valuable on a big stage, against a stout defense.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers Quarterback (+500)
The case FOR Brock Purdy: Despite his awful Christmas nightmare, the 49ers may finish with the best record in the NFC, which would make Purdy MVP material. Again, the MVP award has gone to the quarterback on a top-seeded team. Currently, at 11-4, San Francisco has clinched the NFC West and owns the tiebreakers over Philadelphia and Detroit.
Statistically, Purdy has been elite. After Week 16, he still leads the NFL in Passer Rating, QBR, Yards per Attempt, and Completion, and is second in Passing Yards and Touchdowns. Clearly, Brock has been brilliant in 2023, even with the blemish against Baltimore.
The case AGAINST Brock Purdy: In a battle of the top-seeded teams, Balitmore’s defense dismantled San Francisco, in a potential Super Bowl Preview. ‘Twas the season of giving and Purdy threw four interceptions, three of which gave the Ravens scoring drives. One of which gave the 49ers safety but that was a bit of Christmas luck.
Before Week 16, Brock Purdy was the odds-on favorite to win the MVP. On Christmas Eve, Purdy likely went to bed dreaming about taking home the hardware. Yet, on Christmas, Monday Night Football, the Ravens turned Brock’s dream into a nightmare. After Purdy’s fourth interception, he was benched for Sam Darnold who infamously saw ghosts on his last Monday Night appearance.
Of course, it would be wrong to write off Brock Purdy after his worst professional start. Unfortunately, Purdy’s lone poor performance came on a huge stage. Over 27 million Americans witnessed the Ravens’ victory over the 49ers, meaning Brock Purdy is seeing a huge shift in the odds because of recency bias. Luckily, Purdy will have a chance to regain his confidence against the Washington Commanders’ terrible defense.
-By Eric Mintzer
*Photo Courtesy of Sports Illustrated
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