After Week 15, the NFL playoff picture is beginning to unfold. As contenders rise and pretenders fall, the NFL’s elite players take centerstage. Naturally, the football world will vigorously debate who should win the prestigious NFL Most Valuable Player award. Here is your informal, informative guide to this year’s NFL MVP Race.
Who are The Favorites? (aka the Quarterbacks)
All odds are as of 12 PM EST, on DraftKings on 12/20/23. Technically, the award is open for anyone at any position. But, that seems to be long forgotten. Each of the last ten MVP awards have gone to a quarterback. Specifically, who’s team finished with the best record in their conference. Seemingly, the criteria for MVP is: Starting Quarterback, Best Team in Conference. That’s where we start.
Brock Purdy, San Fransisco 49ers QB (-200)
The case FOR Brock Purdy: What a story. Unbelievably, the 2022 Mr. Irrelevant is the current odds on favorite to win the 2023 NFL MVP award. Taken with the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy was the 49ers’ third option, behind Jimmy G and Trey Lance. Yet, unfortunate injuries forced both Garoppolo and Lance out and Purdy in. The rest has been history, as the 49ers won all five games started by Brock in 2022.
Will Brock Purdy join the elite?
Simply, Brock Purdy is the starting quarterback for the best team in the NFL. Naturally, he is the favorite for the MVP award. As mentioned above, in today’s NFL, that’s how it goes. Clearly, Purdy is more than a game-manager and has the stats to back it up. After Sunday’s explosive performance, Purdy leads the NFL in QBR, yards per attempt, TD passes, yards per completion, and TD to interception ratio. Analytically, Brock Purdy has played incredible football. Led by Purdy, the 49ers offense production is among the best in NFL history.
The case AGAINST Brock Purdy: Call me old school, but I believe the NFL MVP should go to the most valuable player in the NFL. You’re wondering why would I say something so controversial and bold. Well, because I’m not sure Brock Purdy is the most valuable player on his offense.
In San Francisco, there is an abundance of talent at all positions. Sharing the backfield with Purdy, is Christian McCaffrey. As you will read later, McCaffrey has his own strong case for the MVP trophy.
Of course, the 49ers have a plethora of options. San Francisco’ s high flying offense features weapons like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Each of whom are having a Pro-Bowl caliber season. Lastly, the importance of Trent Williams is terribly under appreciated. In the two games he missed, the 49ers lost to the Vikings and Bengals because their world class offense stumbled. In recent weeks, San Francisco has flexed their offensive muscle. But, the question remains, is Purdy the most valuable piece to the puzzle?
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB (+450)
The case FOR Lamar: Similar to Purdy, Lamar Jackson is the starting quarterback for the team with the best record in his conference. At 11-4 the Baltimore Ravens have the best record in the AFC, which would mean home field advantage in the playoffs. Check off starting QB and Top seeded team in the conference for Lamar Jackson, as with Purdy. However, it has been an adverse season in Baltimore.
For the last few seasons, the skill positions for the Ravens has been like the drummer for Spinal Tap: A very hazardous occupation. Sadly, in the season opener, JK Dobbins tore his achilles, ending his season. Then tragedy struck in Week 11, when Baltimore’s All Pro Tight End Mark Andrews suffered a season ending injury. Most recently, breakout rookie Keaton Mitchell tore his ACL, and will miss the rest of the season. All of this to say that unlike Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson’s supporting cast has plagued by injury.
Still, Lamar has led Ravens to top of the AFC, elevating the play of rookie Zay Flowers, back up tight Isaiah Likely and the rejuvenated Odell Beckham Jr. Incredibly, Jackson is Baltimore’s leading rusher for what would be the fifth straight season, dating back to his MVP year, in 2019. In 2019, Lamar completed 265 passes on 401 attempts to 3,127. Through 14 games of 2023, Lamar has completed 266 passes of 401 attempts, for 3,105 yards. Eerily similar.
The case AGAINST Lamar:Unfortunately, Lamar will have to clear two comparisons in the 2023 MVP Race. First, the Brocket ship, Mr. Purdy. Second, will be the previously mentioned 2019 Lamar Jackson MVP Season. Notably, en route to the 2019 MVP award, Lamar set the quarterback rushing record with 1,206 yards. Keep in mind, record-setting seasons automatically raise a player’s MVP candidacy.
With Purdy, the comparison is pretty straightforward. Head to Head, Brock leads Lamar in all passing categories by a wide margin. Purdy leads Jackson in: completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns, QBR, and passer rating. Unsurprisingly, Lamar leads in the rushing categories. Thankfully, due the NFL blessed us all by putting these two in an epic Monday Night matchup. After Week 16, there will be more clarity between Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy.
Regardless of whether or not it is fair, as a former MVP, Lamar will be held to his previous MVP standards. This season, he is going to eclipse the completion and passing yardage posted in his incredible 2019 season. However, in 15 games in 2019, Jackson threw 36 touchdowns, and had a QBR of 83, both of which led the NFL. Currently, Purdy leads the NFL in those categories.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys QB
Being the Quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys thrusts you into stardom like no other position in sports. Look at Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman, and Tony Romo, each of whom have enjoyed successful careers in media after their playing days. Following suit, Dak has built his brand off the field endorsing: Jordan, Beats, DirectTV, Campbell’s, Blockchain.com, Oikos, Pepsi, New Era, Citi Bank and tattoo sedation.
The case FOR Dak: In Jerry’s world, the Cowboys have been devastating opposing defenses. In Dallas, the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0, outscoring opponents by an average score of 39.9 to 15.4. At home, Prescott has thrown, for 2,125 yards with 20 touchdowns to only two interceptions. On the season, Dak’s 28 touchdowns and 72.7 QBR trail only Purdy for second best in the NFL.
With Week 14’s statement victory over Philadelphia, Dallas moved into first place in the NFC East. Although, they lost badly to the Bills, the Cowboys have clinched a spot in the playoffs. Only a game behind San Francisco, there’s a chance Dallas takes over the number one seed in the NFC, which would strengthen Dak’s MVP argument.
The case AGAINST Dak: As you know by now, good teams need good quarterbacks. Great teams need Valuable quarterbacks. Naturally, the success of the team Dallas Cowboys relies on the play of Dak Prescott. Simply, on the road, Dak has struggled. In their seven road games, the Cowboys are 3-4, while being outscored. Plainly, the powered Dallas offense has slowed down outside of Texas.
Specifically, Dak Prescott has struggled considerably away from Dallas. In seven road games, Prescott has thrown for only 1,514 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Clearly, there is a stark contrast between home Dak and road Dak. As shown by the splits in his stats, Dak has demonstrated MVP caliber play at home. But, on the road, Prescott is, at best, mediocre and, at worst detrimental to the Cowboys.
Who are The Long ShotS?
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB (+1200)
The case FOR Josh Allen: After back to back victories over the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and NFC East leading Dallas Cowboys, the Buffalo Bills find themselves in the playoff hunt. At 8-6, the Bills have become the popular pick for “team no one wants to meet in the playoffs.” Of course, leading Buffalo’s recent stampede is Josh Allen.
Through Week 15, Josh Allen leads the NFL with 37 total touchdowns (26 passing + 11 rushing). Obviously, Allen is the motor that keeps the Bills in every game that they play. Yet, in order to win the MVP, Josh would have to take the AFC East away from the Dolphins. Which, is surprisingly possible.
Before Miami heads to Buffalo for the season finale, the Dolphins play the Cowboys and the Ravens. As mentioned above, both of those teams are really good. Meanwhile, in those two weeks the Bills play the skeleton crews of the Chargers and the Patriots. Meaning, if the Dolphins lose one of the next two games and the Bills win the next two, then we have a winner take all in Week 18 for the AFC East.
The case AGAINST Josh Allen: The turnovers.
Honestly, Josh Allen is tremendously exciting to watch because he plays with so much effort. Unfortunately, sometimes, Josh Allen takes on too much and forces plays, resulting in turnovers. For example, Week One, in the aftermath of Aaron Rodgers’ injury, the Jets actually beat the Bills because of Allen’s five turnovers. In total, Josh has thrown 14 interceptions, second most in the NFL. Only twice in the last 30 seasons has a quarterback won the MVP award, while throwing 14 or more interceptions. In 2001, Kurt Warner threw 22 and in 2009 Peyton Manning threw 16.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles QB (+2000)
The case FOR Jalen Hurts: As you might have heard, there is a new craze sweeping the nation by storm. Some call it, the “Tush Push“, while the Eagles have taken to the “Brotherly Shove.” As you also might have heard, the NFL is considering banning the play because of Philadephia’s unmatached success with the play. The only comparable move I can think of is when the NCAA banned dunking because Kareem was unstoppable.
At 10-4, the Eagles are only separated from the Cowboys because of the tie breaker. Yet, if Dallas loses and Philadelphia wins out, then the Eagles will take home the NFC East. Additionally, it’s possible that San Francisco AND Dallas lose a game while Philadelphia wins out and claims the first round bye in the NFC. Crazier things have happened.
The case AGAINST Jalen Hurts: In 2022, Hurts was the runner up in the MVP voting, and the Eagles were the top seed in the NFC. As a dual threat, Jalen Hurts threw for 22 touchdowns with only six interceptions, adding 13 more touchdowns on the ground. Of course, last season set the bar very high for Hurts.
In 2023, after week 15, the Eagles joined the 49ers and Cowboys in clinching a playoff spot. However, Philadelphia lost three straight games, including blow outs at home to San Francisco and in Dallas. During this three game skid, Jalen Hurts has thrown only one passing touchdown and two interceptions. On the season, Hurts has thrown 12 interceptions, twice that of last year. Worsening the turnover problem, Hurts has lost five fumbles. Which makes it unlikely for Jalen to make a run in the MVP Race… Unless the Eagles win the NFC.
What about NON-QB?
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers RB (+2000)
The case FOR Christian McCaffrey: Simply, McCaffrey has been the best player in the NFL. The Stanford standout, Christian McCaffrey has been electrifying the Bay Area since returning last year. In 2023, McCaffrey has 20 touchdowns in just 15 games. For comparison, as a team, the New York Jets have 13 touchdowns.
Through Week 15, McCaffrey leads the NFL with 1,292 rushing yards. Individually, he has more rushing yards than the Bucs, Jets, Bengals and Raiders have as a team. The gap between CMC and the next leading rusher, Buffalo’s James Cook, is 324 yards. That is a larger gap than between James Cook and Jaylen Warren, the NFL’s 29th best rusher. In a pass heavy league, McCaffrey and the 49ers rushing attack is proving unstoppable. Even legendary NFL Passers agree.
The case AGAINST Christian McCaffrey: As mentioned way above, the last ten winners of the MVP Award have been Quarterbacks. The last running back to win was in 2012, when Adrian Peterson had 2,097 rushing yards, the second best of all time. While McCaffrey is leading the NFL by a wide margin, he is not going to reach 2,000 rushing yards.
Even if CMC did break 2,000, remember, in 2020, Derick Henry surpassed two thousand rushing yards and Aaron Rodgers won the award. Currently, CMC is the odds on favorite to win the offensive player of the year. Simply, because that is the award given to best offensive skill player.
-By Eric Mintzer
*Photo Courtesy of Getty Images
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