This is a fun time of year to be a Blue Jay fan. Literally, every single day we hear that Ross Atkins is interested in another player either thru free agency or via trade. 

In particular, social media mediums are ” a buzz ” with anticipation and excitement about the possibility of the Toronto Blue Jays making a huge off-season splash by acquiring both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto

However, are we being set up for disappointment when these two players end up elsewhere?

Let’s take a look from a few different perspectives. 

High Level – Macro View:

It’s extremely easy to leak interest in a player that is based on an exaggerated fact. Of course Ross Atkins has inquired about both players. He would not be doing his job properly if he didn’t make the phone call. It’s also easy to make an offer assuming the player’s agent or player is interested. 

An important piece of information to be aware of is that the owner of the Blue Jays – Rogers Communications – has never given out a contract greater than the 6 year $150M given to George Springer. This is a far cry from the reported multi year deal between $550M & $600M that Ohtani is seeking.

It has never been in their DNA to get into a bidding war. They have a budget to adhere to. I do not see that changing now. 

Based on their past history of signing contracts, my thought is that this is as Bob Uecker once said in the movie Major League – ” Just A Bit Outside ” of their comfort level. 

Could Rogers actually make a profit from signing Ohtani?  

Sure, the team has an entire country behind them with a population of 38.25 million people based on a 2021 census. Yes, Rogers owns Sportsnet ( TV and Radio stations that own the Blue Jays broadcast rights). Obviously, this would result theoretically in increased advertising revenue.  How long this would it last is up for debate as interest in a “unicorn” player would diminish at some point.

The team already basically sells out the Rogers Centre so increased attendance is limited. Sure they could increase ticket prices, however that is exactly what the team is currently doing to pay for their two stage renovation project of the dome. Another ticket price increase would be risky.

Obviously there would be increased merchandising / jersey sales, however that revenue stream will certainly peak at some point. 

Rogers is all about profit. I just don’t see how they would make a profit on this contract after the initial surge in excitement wears off. If we add in the possibility of acquiring Juan Soto and his potential contract beyond the 2024 season the thought becomes even more ridiculous.

From a Pure Baseball Perspective:

From a pure baseball perspective acquiring Ohtani to be a designated hitter for next season and beyond, does not fit into the Blue Jays analytical philosophy of giving players rest in part by having a roving DH. Ohtani wants to play everyday which means other players would not be able to be given ½ days off and be the DH. 

If he can pitch in 2025, how long will that last? His body is already breaking down. After all he is 29 years old. As well, I highly doubt that he would be very happy with being pulled in the 6^th inning because some math formula says its the best thing to do.  

Ross Atkins thinks the Blue Jays can win games 0-0. This is why he has such a great emphasis on building a great defensive team. Well, Juan Soto does not fit into this blueprint. He is not a good defensive outfielder. 

Atkins traded away Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr for this exact same reason. Unless he has changed his mindset on how to build a team (and I don’t think he has), trading for Soto does not make sense. 

Atkins would have to severely dip into the prospect cupboard to get him. After giving up Gabriel Marino last off season, I doubt he has the appetite to do it again. 

From The Players Perspective:

I could be entirely wrong about everything that I wrote above. However, if the player does not want to come here, all other factors are moot.  Signing Ohtani would mean having to trade away either Bichette, Guerrero Jr or Springer or some mixture of the three.  Why? Remember the budget!!

Why would Ohtani want to come to a team that is worse now with him than before without him? He wouldn’t!!

He is a lone wolf and always has done things his own way. He would despise having to fall in line with analytics that says he needs to take a rest from being DH or that he can only pitch 6 innings. 

I am sure Soto thinks of himself as an everyday outfielder. With the analytically driven Toronto Blue Jays he would be a part time outfielder. It’s doubtful at best that Juan would be happy with this. 

I am a Canadian and I love my country. However that does not mean that both of these players would. I am sure given a choice they would prefer to be in California. 

From a pure winning perspective, Toronto is a good team. However they are not a World Series contending team ( despite what Toronto sports media says ). The Los Angeles Dodgers, amongst others, on the other hand are. I have to believe that Ohtani wants to win a World Series and Soto wants a repeat of the 2019 season. 

So, back to my original question. Are Blue Jays fans being lead astray?  My answer is yes. Some people will say that I am being negative. I counter with that I am being a realist. 

Jeff Stanzel

*Photo courtesy of the Queen’s Journal

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